Research Group 1: Profile

Energy and mobility are the main causes of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and they also have other environmental impacts (e.g. land use). Major structural changes are needed in both areas in the coming decades to protect the climate and reduce risks. In the energy sector, almost the entire stock of power stations as well as the transport and distribution networks in Germany and Europe will need to be renewed. In the transport sector, the changes concern whether, when and how new fuels can gain market entry.

Structural changes in the energy and transport sectors are linked to major long-term investments, and these investments require secure foundations for decision making. The research group draws up robust development paths both at national and at international level, addressing the following questions:

• Which demands will be placed on sustainable energy and mobility structures, and what could such structures look like (integrated scenario analysis - backcasting and forecasting)?
• What are the conditions for the emergence of sustainable energy and mobility structures (transformation process: technologies, actors, acceptance, framework conditions)?
• What are the implications of this transformation process (socioeconomic aspects, impacts on different actors)?
• How can we support this transformation process (road mapping, monitoring systems, evaluation)?

The goal of the research group is to analyse over time where, how and to what effect individual technologies are implemented (dynamic systems analysis), and to take a closer look at the interplay between technologies and entire system structures (impact analysis). We aim to identify the driving factors as well as the decisionmaking structures, i.e. the opportunities to influence these factors, and, based on this work, to formulate problem-solving measures.

Beyond deepening our knowledge of individual sectors, our goal is to achieve a better understanding of the numerous interdependencies between energy structures and mobility structures at the systems level (understanding systems and system changes). For this reason, we take an integrated approach that embraces both sectors

• in analysing the introduction of new fuels, including the establishment of new infrastructures and options for making them available (cf. Topics Online, "Alternative Fuels and Energy Carriers");
• in identifying how each sector (e.g. transport, private households, industry) can contribute to climate protection, considering in particular demand-side measures (increasing energy efficiency);
• in demonstrating the technological opportunities for synergies (for example, fuel cells), in order to promote market access.

By identifying sustainable energy and mobility structures, the research group supports a targeted energy and climate policy that is fair on producers and consumers, and develops viable options for actors in politics and the business world. For example, technology forecasting investigates which technologies are necessary and/or desirable from the perspective of global requirements, and how they can create new business opportunities.

The research group's perspective is both national and international, and it can build on manifold experiences gained in successful third-party-financed projects. In dealing with the following questions, the research group also takes account of recent developments and current events:

• How can the total stock of power stations be optimised in terms of environmental protection, energy efficiency and profitability over time?
• How can we promote the expansion and integration of decentralised energy supply technologies and renewable energy, both in terms of systems integration and integration into the power supply networks? Which technical and infrastructural measures are necessary to achieve that goal?
• What effects do the changing population and demand structures have on the energy and transport systems and the infrastructures on which they are based?
• How can we achieve a better integration of the fuels industry and the energy industry (supply of alternative fuels)?
• Which new technologies and concepts for use in the realms of transport and energy are necessary to make supply more energy-efficient?

A differentiated set of methodological approaches is available for these analyses. It includes various scenario approaches, tools for analysis for dynamic examinations of potentials and of efficient resource use, models for projecting demand for energy and transport services as well as demographic, infrastructure and learning curve models.